Goldman Sachs | Outlook for 2023 (2023)


Goldman Sachs | Outlook for 2023 (5)

Shape your predictions for the year ahead with insights from economists and strategists at Goldman Sachs. Over the coming weeks, we'll be gathering forecasts covering expectations for economic growth, unemployment, interest rates and more, providing insight into the trends likely to shape global economies and markets in 2023.

Recommended information

A key analysis of this year's forecast.


What awaits economies and markets in 2023?

Jan Hatzius, head of Goldman Sachs Research and the company's chief economist, and Dominic Wilson, senior advisor to the Global Markets Research Group, explain why they believe the US can avoid recession and how the economic outlook is improving in Europe and China in 2023.


Why the US Dollar May Have Passed Its Peak

According to Kamakshya Trivedi, head of currency, interest rates and emerging markets strategy at Goldman Sachs Research, the US dollar may have been gaining against other major currencies in 2022, but there are increasing signs that the dollar has passed its peak.


Commodities: Underinvested super cycle

Jeff Currie, Global Head of Commodity Research, explains why commodity markets will be shaped by underinvestment in 2023.


Is it time to switch from stocks to bonds?

According to Goldman Sachs Research's 2023 asset allocation projections, high-rated bonds are starting to give stocks a chance to make money.


US equities are projected to see less pain but no gains in 2023

“Simply put, zero earnings growth will generate zero appreciation in the stock market,” wrote David Kostin, chief equity strategist at Equity.


The bear market in global stocks is expected to deepen in 2023

According to Goldman Sachs Research, the bear market in stock markets is expected to intensify before giving way to more promising signs in late 2023.


Why the US should avoid a recession in 2023

The US is likely to make a soft landing next year: according to Goldman Sachs Research, the world's largest economy will narrowly avoid recession as inflation falls and unemployment rises slightly.

Latest Perspectives

The latest reports for the next year published company-wide.


Outlook 2023 - Caution: dense fog

The year 2022 was turbulent. Stock markets plummeted, interest rates rose at the fastest rate in decades, and commodity prices volatilized in response to high inflation and geopolitical tensions. Goldman Sachs Wealth Management's Investment Strategy Group expects 2023 to be a less turbulent year for markets, with moderate inflation and major central banks nearing the end of their monetary policy tightening cycles. However, there is still uncertainty facing investors.


Macro Outlook 2023: This cycle is different

Global growth slowed by 2022 as the pace of reopening slowed, fiscal and monetary tightening, China's Covid restrictions and housing crisis, and the Russo-Ukrainian war. Goldman Sachs Research expects global growth to be just 1.8% in 2023 as US resilience contrasts with Europe's recession and turbulent reopening in China.


US Economic Outlook 2023: We are approaching soft earth

The main macroeconomic question of the year was whether inflationary overheating could be reversed without a recession. Analysis by economists at Goldman Sachs Research suggests the answer is yes - a prolonged period of below-potential growth could gradually reverse the overheating labor market and reduce wage growth and ultimately inflation, providing a viable, if difficult, path to a smooth landing.


Europe's prospects by 2023: milder recession, higher final rate

Goldmans Sachs Research economists stand by their longtime view that the energy crisis will push the European economy into recession this winter, as research and manufacturing data point to a significant slowdown in energy-intensive industries and high inflation will reduce real family incomes. But now they see a shallower recession as hard data remains surprisingly resilient, gas rebalancing has reduced the risk of energy shortages and governments have provided substantial fiscal support.


Asia Views: Outlook for 2023: Inflation spikes, growth drops

According to economists at Goldman Sachs Research, economic growth is likely to start in 2023 on the weak side in most of the Asia-Pacific, with a weak pace of reopening, a slowdown in the global manufacturing cycle and past monetary tightening that will impact activity. As these headwinds subside and China begins to reopen, they expect growth to pick up again. While most of our economists' full-year GDP projections for 2023 are slightly below consensus, they are more positive for growth in the second half of the year, especially in China.


China 2023 Outlook: After winter comes spring

After a very challenging 2022, economists at Goldman Sachs Research expect China's GDP growth to accelerate from 3.0% this year to 4.5% next year due to China's potential Covid-0 exit, which they assume will start shortly after the "two sessions" in March. Reopening China would mean a strong recovery in consumption, strengthening of core inflation and a gradual normalization of cyclical policy in 2023.


Japan Economic Outlook 2023: Focus on Wage Growth and Changes in BOJ Leadership

Our economists at Goldman Sachs Research expect Japan's real GDP growth to slow to 1.3% in 2023 from 1.5% in 2022. Consumption is likely to benefit directly from the reopening of the economy, and they also expect investment spending to remain stable due to subdued demand, labor shortages caused by demographic changes and the reopening and reconstruction of the supply chain.


Commodity Outlook 2023: A super cycle with little investment

Just as commodities markets were dominated by the dollar in 2022, Goldman Sachs Commodities analysts expect them to be shaped by underinvestment in 2023.

font size

  • A
  • A

The information provided in this document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation by any Goldman Sachs entity to the recipient. Goldman Sachs does not provide any financial, economic, legal, investment, accounting or tax advice through this content. Goldman Sachs has no obligation to provide any updates or changes to the information contained in this content. Any logos used in this content are the property of the company to which they refer, are used herein for informational and identification purposes only, and are not used to imply any sponsorship, affiliation, endorsement, ownership or licensing rights between such companies and Goldman Sachs. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained therein, and any liability arising therefrom (including with respect to direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly denied.
To the extent this content includes materials from the Goldman Sachs Securities Department, please clickHerefor information regarding and reliance on the Global Markets materials.
To the extent this content includes material from Goldman Sachs Asset Management, please clickHerefor additional disclosures.

Sign up for BRIEFINGS, Goldman Sachs' newsletter on trends shaping markets, industries and the global economy.

You have successfully subscribed to BRIEFINGS


Top Articles
Latest Posts
Article information

Author: Prof. An Powlowski

Last Updated: 09/07/2023

Views: 6131

Rating: 4.3 / 5 (44 voted)

Reviews: 83% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Prof. An Powlowski

Birthday: 1992-09-29

Address: Apt. 994 8891 Orval Hill, Brittnyburgh, AZ 41023-0398

Phone: +26417467956738

Job: District Marketing Strategist

Hobby: Embroidery, Bodybuilding, Motor sports, Amateur radio, Wood carving, Whittling, Air sports

Introduction: My name is Prof. An Powlowski, I am a charming, helpful, attractive, good, graceful, thoughtful, vast person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.