Shape your predictions for the year ahead with insights from economists and strategists at Goldman Sachs. Over the coming weeks, we'll be gathering forecasts covering expectations for economic growth, unemployment, interest rates and more, providing insight into the trends likely to shape global economies and markets in 2023.
What makes the US likely to avoid recession in 2023? Our chief economist, Jan Hatzius, says there are two opposing forces at play, one positive and one negative – and the positive one should prove stronger.
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A key analysis of this year's forecast.
EXCHANGE AT GOLDMAN SACHSWhat awaits economies and markets in 2023?
Jan Hatzius, head of Goldman Sachs Research and the company's chief economist, and Dominic Wilson, senior advisor to the Global Markets Research Group, explain why they believe the US can avoid recession and how the economic outlook is improving in Europe and China in 2023.
PERCEPTIONWhy the US Dollar May Have Passed Its Peak
According to Kamakshya Trivedi, head of currency, interest rates and emerging markets strategy at Goldman Sachs Research, the US dollar may have been gaining against other major currencies in 2022, but there are increasing signs that the dollar has passed its peak.
PERCEPTIONCommodities: Underinvested super cycle
Jeff Currie, Global Head of Commodity Research, explains why commodity markets will be shaped by underinvestment in 2023.
ARTICLESIs it time to switch from stocks to bonds?
According to Goldman Sachs Research's 2023 asset allocation projections, high-rated bonds are starting to give stocks a chance to make money.
ARTICLESUS equities are projected to see less pain but no gains in 2023
“Simply put, zero earnings growth will generate zero appreciation in the stock market,” wrote David Kostin, chief equity strategist at Equity.
ARTICLESThe bear market in global stocks is expected to deepen in 2023
According to Goldman Sachs Research, the bear market in stock markets is expected to intensify before giving way to more promising signs in late 2023.
ARTICLESWhy the US should avoid a recession in 2023
The US is likely to make a soft landing next year: according to Goldman Sachs Research, the world's largest economy will narrowly avoid recession as inflation falls and unemployment rises slightly.
The latest reports for the next year published company-wide.
ASSET MANAGEMENTOutlook 2023 - Caution: dense fog
The year 2022 was turbulent. Stock markets plummeted, interest rates rose at the fastest rate in decades, and commodity prices volatilized in response to high inflation and geopolitical tensions. Goldman Sachs Wealth Management's Investment Strategy Group expects 2023 to be a less turbulent year for markets, with moderate inflation and major central banks nearing the end of their monetary policy tightening cycles. However, there is still uncertainty facing investors.
GOLDMAN SACHS RESEARCHMacro Outlook 2023: This cycle is different
Global growth slowed by 2022 as the pace of reopening slowed, fiscal and monetary tightening, China's Covid restrictions and housing crisis, and the Russo-Ukrainian war. Goldman Sachs Research expects global growth to be just 1.8% in 2023 as US resilience contrasts with Europe's recession and turbulent reopening in China.
GOLDMAN SACHS RESEARCHUS Economic Outlook 2023: We are approaching soft earth
The main macroeconomic question of the year was whether inflationary overheating could be reversed without a recession. Analysis by economists at Goldman Sachs Research suggests the answer is yes - a prolonged period of below-potential growth could gradually reverse the overheating labor market and reduce wage growth and ultimately inflation, providing a viable, if difficult, path to a smooth landing.
GOLDMAN SACHS RESEARCHEurope's prospects by 2023: milder recession, higher final rate
Goldmans Sachs Research economists stand by their longtime view that the energy crisis will push the European economy into recession this winter, as research and manufacturing data point to a significant slowdown in energy-intensive industries and high inflation will reduce real family incomes. But now they see a shallower recession as hard data remains surprisingly resilient, gas rebalancing has reduced the risk of energy shortages and governments have provided substantial fiscal support.
GOLDMAN SACHS RESEARCHAsia Views: Outlook for 2023: Inflation spikes, growth drops
According to economists at Goldman Sachs Research, economic growth is likely to start in 2023 on the weak side in most of the Asia-Pacific, with a weak pace of reopening, a slowdown in the global manufacturing cycle and past monetary tightening that will impact activity. As these headwinds subside and China begins to reopen, they expect growth to pick up again. While most of our economists' full-year GDP projections for 2023 are slightly below consensus, they are more positive for growth in the second half of the year, especially in China.
GOLDMAN SACHS RESEARCHChina 2023 Outlook: After winter comes spring
After a very challenging 2022, economists at Goldman Sachs Research expect China's GDP growth to accelerate from 3.0% this year to 4.5% next year due to China's potential Covid-0 exit, which they assume will start shortly after the "two sessions" in March. Reopening China would mean a strong recovery in consumption, strengthening of core inflation and a gradual normalization of cyclical policy in 2023.
GOLDMAN SACHS RESEARCHJapan Economic Outlook 2023: Focus on Wage Growth and Changes in BOJ Leadership
Our economists at Goldman Sachs Research expect Japan's real GDP growth to slow to 1.3% in 2023 from 1.5% in 2022. Consumption is likely to benefit directly from the reopening of the economy, and they also expect investment spending to remain stable due to subdued demand, labor shortages caused by demographic changes and the reopening and reconstruction of the supply chain.
GOLDMAN SACHS RESEARCHCommodity Outlook 2023: A super cycle with little investment
Just as commodities markets were dominated by the dollar in 2022, Goldman Sachs Commodities analysts expect them to be shaped by underinvestment in 2023.
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